i9s

Charles Wilber Rogan, better known as Bullet Joe was, simply, a beast.

He was the closest thing to Shohei Ohtani before Shohei Ohtani, a clear HoF level batter with an argument for the Hall on the mound. Throw in excellent speed in his youth and far above average defense in CF, and you have a force to be reckoned with.

Let’s look at his batting first. Rogan smashed the ball with power, had an excellent eye for the strike zone, and rarely struck out. This projection has him in the running for the league lead in hits, doubles, and triples a few years each and reaching double-digits in homeruns each season for over a decade. From 1921 to 1930, we have him posting an OPS greater than .900 every year.

As he wrapped up his career, he would have been the active leader in doubles and triples (note, not career leader, active leader), ending with over 1,000 extra base hits and an OPS just shy of .900. Bullet could rake.

On the mound he was the epitome of a workhorse, logging over 300 innings 5 times in 6 years between 1919 and 1924. He had excellent control, and struck out his share of batters. He has a shot at some black ink, but that’s more a product of his usage than anything else (if you are among the league leaders in innings and you are decent, you will also usually be somewhere up there in hits allowed and strikeouts, and maybe walks).

Rogan’s endpoint is, of course, highly dependent on how the 2-way players end up being adjusted for usage. But here’s the thing: unlike most of the others, his greatness isn’t dependent on both sides of the coin. He was an all-star OF who _also_ pitched at an all-star level. Ohtaniesque.

That said, clearly his pitching usage could be revised: here we’ve followed the historical pattern of having him essentially stop pitching for man years after 1928, somewhat arbitrarily adding a handful of appearances in a few years thereafter. It’s hard to figure: even at reduced efficiency, it seems logical that you would have Cap take the mound for a few innings a year, right?

I could see future projections giving him even better control, nudging his WHIP numbers towards the top of the league. I could also see the current projections distribution of his XBH changing–there is evidence in the data that he hit a ton of triples for a while, then slowed down and hit more homeruns, an effect that is magnified by the changes to the offensive context between the 1910s and the 1920s.

We filled in 1917 through 1919 and then 1931 and 1932 and, both at bat and on the mound, somewhat arbitrarily sprinkled a handful of appearances into his 40’s. His effectiveness was really quite diminished by the 1930 or so, but he was certainly good enough to “hold on and serve in a pinch.”

Name	Charles Rogan (Bullet Joe; Cap)
ID / Status	rogan-001bul / Draft
Pos	P
DOB / i9s Career	07/28/1893 / 1916 - 1938
Birthplace	Oklahoma City, OK (USA)
Height / Weight	5'7" / 160
B / T	R / R

 

Batting Projections

Year	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1916	344	126	26	9	2	36	38	15	6	0.366	0.426	0.512	0.938
1917	548	155	35	12	3	61	53	23	6	0.283	0.355	0.407	0.762
1918	566	148	31	13	3	63	43	22	6	0.261	0.335	0.378	0.714
1919	657	183	41	19	5	68	42	24	7	0.279	0.346	0.422	0.768
1920	604	186	42	16	9	54	30	44	21	0.308	0.365	0.475	0.840
1921	527	182	34	13	10	47	27	40	17	0.345	0.399	0.516	0.915
1922	581	224	39	18	21	67	36	49	21	0.386	0.449	0.623	1.072
1923	580	202	33	13	16	59	32	17	8	0.348	0.408	0.533	0.941
1924	649	238	40	12	17	66	28	46	15	0.367	0.425	0.544	0.969
1925	584	214	35	16	19	64	28	17	7	0.366	0.429	0.579	1.008
1926	610	201	47	9	18	75	31	18	3	0.330	0.403	0.525	0.928
1927	571	195	31	8	17	77	31	13	4	0.342	0.420	0.513	0.933
1928	510	171	32	8	15	54	31	25	8	0.335	0.399	0.518	0.917
1929	540	198	36	11	23	66	34	44	15	0.367	0.436	0.602	1.037
1930	461	138	23	14	16	65	45	9	4	0.299	0.386	0.514	0.900
1931	372	108	20	7	10	38	31	5	4	0.290	0.356	0.462	0.818
1932	171	37	10	3	4	14	14	2	1	0.216	0.276	0.380	0.656
1933	263	86	18	2	5	23	22	2	3	0.327	0.381	0.468	0.849
1934	131	43	7	0	2	17	18	1	1	0.328	0.405	0.427	0.833
1935	30	9	2	0	1	1	8	0	0	0.300	0.323	0.467	0.789
1936	82	23	5	0	0	16	15	0	0	0.280	0.398	0.341	0.739
1937	59	13	3	1	1	8	13	0	0	0.220	0.313	0.356	0.669
1938	32	9	2	1	0	3	10	0	0	0.281	0.343	0.406	0.749

 

Pitching Projections

Year	G	GS	IP	HA	W	K	HRA	eD	eT	eHBP	BB/9	H/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
1916	14	5	56.0	38	14	26	1	0	0	1	2.3	6.1	4.2	1.82	0.93
1917	24	21	159.0	149	34	77	3	0	0	3	1.9	8.4	4.4	2.46	1.15
1918	32	29	227.0	202	67	100	2	0	0	5	2.7	8.0	4.0	2.41	1.19
1919	45	39	305.0	308	79	117	6	0	0	7	2.3	9.1	3.5	2.97	1.27
1920	48	41	326.0	321	92	148	12	0	0	8	2.5	8.9	4.1	2.97	1.27
1921	49	48	362.0	311	106	138	14	0	0	10	2.6	7.7	3.4	2.93	1.15
1922	42	41	307.0	277	76	134	13	0	0	7	2.2	8.1	3.9	2.96	1.15
1923	41	36	279.0	255	83	160	11	0	0	7	2.7	8.2	5.2	2.79	1.21
1924	45	40	314.0	314	95	147	9	0	0	8	2.7	9.0	4.2	3.36	1.30
1925	40	37	290.0	247	58	149	14	0	0	3	1.8	7.7	4.6	2.80	1.05
1926	36	29	231.0	231	67	127	10	0	0	5	2.6	9.0	4.9	3.19	1.29
1927	32	29	225.0	239	58	154	8	0	0	4	2.3	9.6	6.2	3.08	1.32
1928	37	32	251.0	258	59	86	15	0	0	5	2.1	9.3	3.1	3.58	1.26
1935	6	0	12.0	18	3	6	2	0	0	0	2.3	13.5	4.5	5.50	1.75
1936	5	3	19.0	24	5	12	2	0	0	0	2.4	11.4	5.7	4.32	1.53
1937	9	4	40.0	46	11	20	3	0	0	0	2.5	10.4	4.5	4.07	1.43