i9s

Steel Arm Johnny Taylor had a few excellent years, with quite a few pretty rough ones in there as well. It was a bit of an odd career, as only 2 years (1914 and 1915) were close to league average: instead, Taylor had a very rough start to his career followed by 3 out of 4 seasons where he was among the more effective pitchers in the league, followed by a very hard crash at the end of his career.

Throughout, he had excellent control while not striking out a lot of batters. That implies–quite correctly–that his success came down to how easy or hard he was to hit in a given season. In 1910, 1911, and especially 1913, he was very hard to hit, making him quite valuable; in the rest of his career, not so much.

As such, there is an argument that he never gets the chance to shine: Taylor’s debut comes in 1907 when he’s already 27 years old, and he allows over 1.25 WHIP in each of his opening 3 years. So it’s possible he never sticks around. If he does, though, he finds a groove as a well-above average contributor 3 of the next 4 years (one issue is that 1912 is truly horrible, as Taylor is hammered that year to the tune of a WHIP approaching 1.50).

I think Taylor’s projections are very likely to change, and perhaps significantly so. I think the general shape–hard to hit, excellent control, and a bit mercurial in his performances–is correct, but there is something about the shape that continues to tug at me. I suspect it’s the jarring nature of the excellence of his 1910, 1911, and 1913 (and, sort of, 1915) surrounded by the dross of the rest of the years.

But that career pattern does indeed exist, so my sense is future revisions to Taylor will largely focus on his usage. And that matters: if he throws over 300 innings in 1910 and 1911, he’s a Cy Young candidate; if he throws 100 innings, he’s a useful end of bullpen part. 1911 is the real sticking point: he was so, so good, but he was clearly the #3 starter on his team, depressing his usage projection. But part of me wants to give him 10 more starts a year from 1909 through 1914.

Name	Johnny Taylor (Steel Arm)
ID / Status	taylo01ste / Draft
Pos	P
DOB / i9s Career	08/12/1879 / 1907 - 1916
Birthplace	Anderson, SC (USA)
Height / Weight	5'5" / 168
B / T	R / R

 

Batting Projections

 

Pitching Projections

Year	G	GS	IP	HA	W	K	HRA	eD	eT	eHBP	BB/9	H/9	K/9	ERA	WHIP
1907	13	6	67.0	72	13	31	0	0	0	2	1.7	9.7	4.2	2.71	1.27
1908	26	19	165.0	175	30	63	5	0	0	4	1.6	9.5	3.4	2.86	1.24
1909	21	15	135.0	137	32	58	2	0	0	4	2.1	9.1	3.9	2.79	1.25
1910	39	31	267.0	223	85	99	3	0	0	9	2.9	7.5	3.3	2.55	1.15
1911	28	20	177.0	147	51	76	6	0	0	5	2.6	7.5	3.9	2.68	1.12
1912	23	23	182.0	223	43	70	2	0	0	4	2.1	11.0	3.5	3.93	1.46
1913	36	25	231.0	182	57	98	4	0	0	5	2.2	7.1	3.8	2.32	1.03
1914	39	35	282.0	284	91	113	8	0	0	8	2.9	9.1	3.6	3.17	1.33
1915	19	16	133.0	114	35	45	1	0	0	3	2.4	7.7	3.0	2.65	1.12
1916	19	4	75.0	103	20	23	4	0	0	2	2.4	12.4	2.8	4.34	1.64