Bill Francis was an elite defensive 3B who could draw a walk.
And … yeah. That’s about it. So the question is how do we value that? How poorly can a 3B hit in the 1900s and 1910s and still have value? Francis has to just about provide the answer, as he could not hit much at all: these projections have him with a batting average below .200 in 7 seasons, and an OPS over .600 only once (1911, easily Francis’ best offensive year).
Francis’ walk rates were impressive, but when you’re starting from a .200 BA, there’s only so impactful they can be. He had very little power, so his OPS was just awful most seasons. He was a good baserunner with impressive speed, and racked up an impressive number of steals. His whiff rate was about league average overall, although it bounced around a bit.
But he was a thrilling defensive player, with great range and a strong arm. We know this from existing fielding metrics (which are admittedly quite unreliable), from peer testimony, and from the fact that he almost never played anywhere but 3B. You were only kept at the hot corner exclusively if you were excellent there.
Francis is another player who turned to managing, artificially extending his career. As with other models, we’ve resisted that, having Francis’ last year be 1920. This does remove his excellent 1921 campaign, but it also keeps us from having to factor in his horrible seasons from 1922 on, when he could pencil his own name into the lineup.
The challenge with these projections is that Francis was clearly an MLB level talent, so his offense needs to land him right on that line–think about players like Mark Belanger at SS or Martín Maldonado behind the plate. They did virtually nothing offensively, but still retained enough value to be well regarded. Whatever that level of offensive performance is for 3B in the Deadball Era, that’s where Francis should be.
As such, these projections may be a bit conservative. I could easily see another 10 points of BA per year, and a slight nudge to the already impressive walk rates. But the overall shape seems on target. I have depressed his usage a bit across the board, just imagining that, especially as he aged, the temptation to pinch-hit and rest and get some bloody offense out there might win out. I could get on board with his offense nudging up, earning him another 100 PA’s most years from 1907 through 1917 or so–that’s 1,000 PA, 250ish hits, 150ish walks, etc. which would certainly enhance his career view.
| Name | Bill Francis (Brodie; Jess) |
| ID / Status | francbi01 / Draft |
| Pos | 3B |
| DOB / i9s Career | 02/28/1879 / 1906 - 1920 |
| Birthplace | Philadelphia, PA (USA) |
| Height / Weight | 5'5" / 140 |
| B / T | R / R |
Batting Projections
| Year | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1906 | 159 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0.170 | 0.228 | 0.195 | 0.423 |
| 1907 | 125 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0.176 | 0.259 | 0.216 | 0.475 |
| 1908 | 291 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 0.175 | 0.252 | 0.227 | 0.479 |
| 1909 | 474 | 109 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 45 | 55 | 23 | 6 | 0.230 | 0.297 | 0.289 | 0.586 |
| 1910 | 308 | 55 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 37 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 0.179 | 0.267 | 0.237 | 0.504 |
| 1911 | 460 | 114 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 60 | 58 | 52 | 9 | 0.248 | 0.335 | 0.317 | 0.652 |
| 1912 | 437 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 49 | 51 | 47 | 13 | 0.199 | 0.280 | 0.263 | 0.543 |
| 1913 | 488 | 89 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 46 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 0.182 | 0.253 | 0.246 | 0.499 |
| 1914 | 438 | 98 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 55 | 56 | 50 | 9 | 0.224 | 0.310 | 0.279 | 0.589 |
| 1915 | 412 | 92 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 49 | 52 | 58 | 21 | 0.223 | 0.306 | 0.289 | 0.595 |
| 1916 | 300 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 36 | 31 | 6 | 0.207 | 0.398 | 0.250 | 0.548 |
| 1917 | 279 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 36 | 21 | 4 | 0.215 | 0.300 | 0.251 | 0.551 |
| 1918 | 287 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0.202 | 0.278 | 0.230 | 0.508 |
| 1919 | 175 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.251 | 0.536 |
| 1920 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0.198 | 0.277 | 0.218 | 0.495 |