i9s

Ashby Dunbar is an interesting case, largely because our instincts of what constitutes a valuable player are so conditioned by the context of play at that time.

Dunbar was clearly a valuable offensive player, and in a few years an extraordinarily valuable one. But a valuable hitter in 1910 could still have an OPS under .700, and an .820 OPS in 1912 was a potential all star. Dunbar’s career was hampered by a late start, but he was a full time player from 1907 through 1918, with a couple decline years at the very end.

Throughout that time, Dunbar hit well for average with a lot of gap power, indeed edging towards the league leaderboards in doubles a few times. He wasn’t very fast, and that showed in a below-average triples rate, especially for someone with his power. His eye for the strike zone was adequate, improving as he aged: all in all, a good offensive cog for about a decade.

Dunbar was below average defensively, with his lack of speed impacting his range and a mediocre arm at best. He did stick around in CF and RF throughout his career, which means he must have at least passed the “eye test,” so it’s possible his defense was better than the numbers would indicate.

Dunbar could have been out of the game in 1917, as he had a few decline years in a row and was 37. But he hit will in 1918 and 1919, so we’ve extended his career to the ripe old age of 40.

I think Dunbar’s overall numbers are good in this projection, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their composition changed. He’s currently modeled as an elite doubles hitter which is plausible. But I could also see spreading some of that out, giving him more triples and even a few more homeruns over his career, while the overall OPS stays roughly consistent.

Name	Ashby Dunbar
ID / Status	dunba01ash / Draft
Pos	OF
DOB / i9s Career	10/15/1879 / 1906 - 1920
Birthplace	Charlottesville, VA (USA)
Height / Weight	/
B / T	/

 

Batting Projections

Year	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1906	247	89	13	4	2	22	23	12	5	0.360	0.413	0.470	0.882
1907	494	131	22	4	1	39	44	23	6	0.265	0.319	0.332	0.651
1908	534	172	32	11	2	39	52	41	7	0.322	0.368	0.434	0.803
1909	481	119	23	4	0	41	44	18	7	0.247	0.307	0.312	0.618
1910	515	137	28	3	0	42	66	20	8	0.266	0.321	0.332	0.653
1911	524	141	25	4	0	42	58	21	9	0.269	0.323	0.332	0.655
1912	509	161	32	8	2	52	58	23	11	0.316	0.380	0.422	0.802
1913	507	115	29	8	1	42	64	38	7	0.227	0.286	0.321	0.607
1914	551	155	38	7	2	54	76	60	11	0.281	0.345	0.387	0.732
1915	520	127	31	4	0	50	60	16	9	0.244	0.311	0.319	0.630
1916	483	122	26	9	1	40	53	15	6	0.253	0.310	0.350	0.660
1917	347	80	17	2	0	46	35	15	4	0.231	0.321	0.291	0.612
1918	422	138	19	2	0	43	34	16	7	0.327	0.389	0.382	0.771
1919	346	124	23	2	2	38	33	13	5	0.358	0.422	0.454	0.876
1920	96	22	4	0	0	6	12	2	2	0.229	0.275	0.271	0.545

 

Pitching Projections