Luis Bustamente is a challenge for work like this.
He’s a member of the Cuban Baseball Hall of Fame, and his contemporaries declared him among the best fielding SS’s of all time. But he was never very far above average offensively, and mixed in a fair number of truly bad years at the plate.
His numbers look worse, of course, due to his era: his 257/326/295 slash line in these projections for 1907 was pretty close to league average (at least for BA and OBP–Anguilla, as he was known, had no power). If you use OPS or OPS+ as your only guide to whether a player “deserved” major league playing time, you end up with a career for Bustamente that is only a few years in length; but if you factor in the level of his defensive reputation, and the prevalence of good fielding middle infielders who couldn’t hit a lick, you get about a decade of steady work.
This is enabled by strong debut years in 1900 and 1901, and faith that someone would continue to hand Bustamente games even after the misery of his performances in 1905 and 1906. From 1905 to 1910, we would expect him to be in the conversation for the Gold Glove at SS. This is not without controversy: his raw fielding numbers run below his reputation. We believe that, while he lacked great range, he was very sure handed, with an excellent arm, and could fill in decently at 2B and 3B if needed.
Bustamente’s offensive production is saved by a strong walk rate, but there is really little to offer there overall: the occasional double, a not horrific ability to get on base … just not a much offense. He struck out a lot. A LOT, to the point where in years where he received a lot of playing time, he would probably make the leaderboards for whiffs as well.
He was fast, and could even potentially be among the league leaders in SB’s a few times, most notably in 1907 (by far his most complete year overall).
Our projections match the years of Bustamente’s historical record.
I think the projection model changes with players like Bustamente. His contemporaries weren’t idiots, and nor were they especially ignorant about the skills on display; as such, there is a need to look at the numerical record and figure out where the reputation came from. Once you have that thread, you can use it to build a model, letting other chips fall where they may.
Bottom line: any system that moves Bustamente out of being a full time shortstop for a decently long career is most likely flawed. Given that, I like the shape he has here.
| Name | Luis Bustamante (Anguilla) |
| ID / Status | bustam000lui / Draft |
| Pos | SS |
| DOB / i9s Career | 1880 / 1901 - 1913 |
| Birthplace | (Cuba) |
| Height / Weight | 5'6" / |
| B / T | R / R |
Batting Projections
| Year | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1901 | 433 | 120 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 56 | 33 | 6 | 0.277 | 0.342 | 0.321 | 0.663 |
| 1902 | 461 | 121 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 0.262 | 0.328 | 0.295 | 0.623 |
| 1903 | 201 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0.194 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.479 |
| 1904 | 597 | 145 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 95 | 45 | 8 | 0.243 | 0.306 | 0.270 | 0.575 |
| 1905 | 431 | 79 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 54 | 32 | 5 | 0.183 | 0.274 | 0.216 | 0.490 |
| 1906 | 440 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 57 | 28 | 6 | 0.168 | 0.238 | 0.211 | 0.449 |
| 1907 | 607 | 156 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 62 | 92 | 61 | 14 | 0.257 | 0.326 | 0.295 | 0.621 |
| 1908 | 533 | 109 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 54 | 70 | 41 | 9 | 0.205 | 0.278 | 0.246 | 0.523 |
| 1909 | 546 | 123 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 65 | 85 | 58 | 10 | 0.225 | 0.308 | 0.266 | 0.573 |
| 1910 | 607 | 133 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 92 | 109 | 37 | 10 | 0.219 | 0.322 | 0.250 | 0.572 |
| 1911 | 487 | 106 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 73 | 85 | 21 | 9 | 0.218 | 0.320 | 0.265 | 0.585 |
| 1912 | 356 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 60 | 12 | 6 | 0.166 | 0.248 | 0.197 | 0.445 |
| 1913 | 343 | 89 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 57 | 15 | 7 | 0.259 | 0.321 | 0.289 | 0.609 |